What is that noise? Could it be rain?

A few weeks ago, I was awakened early one morning by a strange yet strangely familiar sound.

Why was our guest taking a shower at 3:13 a.m.? Wait, no, she had left the afternoon before.

Did the automatic sprinkler system for the vegetable patch work? It wasn't programmed that way.

I heard running water, but why was it flowing at that time?

As the fog of sleep lifted, I realized the sound was rain running through the gutter and downspout outside the bedroom window.

The current mystery was solved. And another took its place to keep me pondering instead of going back to sleep like any sane person would have done at that time of day.

Why wasn't the sound of rain immediately recognizable?

It's not that Victoria hasn't had rain in recent months, although the amount and frequency of rain has been less than usual. For the whole of April, the university received just 29 millimetres of rain, compared to the average of 37 mm. March saw about 20 per cent less rain than normal.

Overall, BC has experienced consistently low rain and snowfall in recent years. The average winter snowpack has been lower than ever before, impacting ski resorts. In mid-May, the average snowpack across BC was only 66 percent, and here on the island it was 46 percent. Rivers across BC are narrow and shallow again.

Vancouver Island is only classified as “Level 2 – negative impacts unlikely” on the British Columbia government's drought map. Three small fires raged on the island in early May. In 2023, there were 281 wildfires on the island throughout the year.

In contrast, the Cariboo region and northeastern British Columbia are experiencing drought levels 4 and 5, with negative impacts likely and certain.

More than 100 wildfires survived the winter of last year's record-breaking fire season. In early May, the province reported dozens of new fires, including the 123-hectare Parker Lake fire that forced the entire Fort Nelson community of about 4,700 residents from their homes and damaged 10 buildings, including four homes.

The scale and intensity of fires in the province this early in the season are cause for concern.

According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, a European Union Earth observation program that tracks and reports information on air pollution and health, solar energy and greenhouse gases around the world, Canada's estimated total carbon emissions from wildfires in the first half of May were about 15 megatonnes.

Of these, over 12 megatonnes came from the fires in British Columbia. Wildfire emissions in British Columbia in the first two weeks of May were more than double the levels in May 2023, the highest ever recorded, and Canada's total emissions were also among the highest in the past 22 years.

Most of the South Island's May rain fell on the 21st – the day of my morning confusion – and the 22nd. As this wet system moved east, it brought a welcome respite to the fire-stricken interior and reduced fire activity.

Despite the temporary relief, however, forests remain vulnerable. A 2021 provincial strategic threat assessment found that 45 percent of public lands in the province are classified as high or extremely vulnerable to wildfire. The balance will only have worsened due to the multi-year rainfall deficit that most of the province has experienced over the past 2.5 years.

Drought-stricken BC needs more than a few weeks of cool temperatures and rainy days. We don't want so much rain all at once that it causes flooding – like the atmospheric river did in November 2021.

Nor do we want the lush, rain-fed grasses and undergrowth of spring and early summer to dry out and become tinder for fires, as happened in 2017, the first summer in a row when smoke from wildfires clouded Victoria's skies and streets.

A month of widespread, persistent and slow rain would help if followed by alternating wet and dry weeks.

It is likely to happen regularly that rainwater runs through gutters, eaves and downpipes.

The sound should not be so unusual that it wakes us up in the middle of the night and makes us ask, “Where does that come from?”

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